The Hillary - Crats are the Key
Tomorrow is the primary in Kentucky. It's the first time in a long time a primary in Kentucky has had any effect on a nomination battle. It looks like it will be another West Virginia and Hillary will win big.
This leads to the point of this post. My arm-chair political analyst assessment of the fall election is that the winner will be the one who gets the Hillary-Crats. White, working/middle class, union, male, patriotic, regular-joe voters. These are the folks who have often been called Reagan democrats - although they swung strongly to Bill Clinton in the 90's.
If Obama can convince them that he is not an elitist, left-wing snob, he will pull it off. If McCain can convince them he is not a big-business, pro-amnesty republican, he will pull it off. The question, of course, is if either one of them pull that off. If the Hillary-Crats stay home I put big money on seeing President Obama give the inauguration speech on January 20.
Soooo ... my take is that the Hillary-Crats are the swing voters this election and what they do after she drops out (she will of course -- maybe later this week) will determine the outcome of the fall election.
Any other armchair analysts out there?
3 comments:
OK, this isn't 100% serious, but my analysis is always done in my car (or truck as the case may be). I poll by number of campaign signs. :) At this point, I've actually seen more Obama signs in Lexington, but they're almost equal. Just throwing that in there for kicks.
Alan's comment reminds me of something funny I heard on the radio show I listen to. A guy called in to say that he also "polls" by counting yard signs. According to his count, "For Sale By Owner" will win this time...
Also, the people in the duplex across the street from me had 2 Hillary signs in their little patch of yard until this weekend. They now have about 10, covering the yard like croquet wickets...
My uneducated guess is that Obama would win or at least be very strong in Lexington while Hillary takes the state. However, in the November election I will be shocked if McCain doesn't take Kentucky.
Of course, I wish Calvin Coolidge was running - but I guess that is impossible when you are dead. ;-)
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